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The Twitter-FBI claim mostly depends on conjecture rather than proof.

In October 2016, WikiLeaks published thousands of emails from John Podesta, Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman. That material was shared over social media almost certainly had a far more damaging effect than ads Russian trolls purchased. In 2020, hostile actors pored over the same emails to create a damaging narrative. Twitter’s new owner, Elon Musk, wants to create a narrative about Russian interference in the 2016 election. His goal is political; he wants to reinforce the sense on the right that government actors in the “Deep State” conspire. What the actual evidence shows is an often ad-hoc response to what happened in 2016.