Democrats over-performed in the second straight special election since Roe v. Wade overturned, in Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District. History suggests such special elections held so close to the next election can be revealing of what may come the next November. Democrats held on to a GOP-leaning district in Arizona in June 2012 after the shooting of Gabrielle Giffords and went on to hold the presidency that November. But those results don’t seem commensurate with an impending red wave in the 2022 midterms, which not along ago seemed like it was indeed building, writes David Gergen. Gergen: These are hardly massive shifts, and these are merely two out of 435 districts as predictive.
There was some question after the Nebraska special election about why Democrats had done better there. But the outcomes in Minnesota and Nebraska — combined with their party’s generic ballot numbers improving of late — give Democrats license to believe the fundamentals are getting better for them. That doesn’t mean they’re gong to hold both the House