John Sutter: Which state charts future of abortion rights in post-Roe America? Kansas or Indiana? He says the answer to be Kansas, but I fear it’s Indiana. Indiana legislators enacted a near-total ban on abortion, becoming first state since Dobbs v. Jackson. Polls suggest that voters are about evenly split on the issue but oppose extreme abortion bans. Sutter says the law passed by a legislature heavily gerrymandered to enhance Republicans’ partisan advantage. He says when the democratic process isn’t democratic, one party gets to choose its voters, democracy becomes an illusion. Sutter predicts that Indiana, not Kansas, might be the bellwether for abortion rights to the states; many state supreme courts are increasingly ideological.
In about 10 states, according to an analysis of state-level polling data by political scientists Jake Grumbach and Christopher Warshaw, majorities oppose allowing abortion. The real problem is elsewhere, about 16 states, where there are big differences between what the people want and the laws that their legislatures have adopted. In some states, such as Florida (which now has a 15-week limit) and Virginia (where Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin has proposed that rule)