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Opinion The real crisis over Taiwan will start after Pelosi comes home

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her delegation have landed in Taiwan, where the immediate worry is the small, but serious possibility of direct military confrontation with China. The larger impact of Pelosi’s visit will play out after she goes home, over weeks, months and years. China is likely to make some aggressive moves today, such as shooting off missiles or flying jets close to Taiwan, but probably probably try to avoid a military confrontation over Taiwan. Beijing will likely use Pelosi's visit as an excuse to make changes to its military posture toward Taiwan, widening China's military advantage across the Taiwan Strait. Beijing can now claim a pretext for rejecting the Biden administration's pitch for putting “guardrails” on the U.S.-China competition to manage it responsibly. To be sure,

When China tried to change the status quo across the strait in 1995, the Clinton administration showed resolve. After nine tense months, eventually the Chinese government backed down. China has engaged in what U.S. military officials call “the largest military buildup in history”