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In the 2024 race, Donald Trump has one underappreciated edge.

Wall Street Journal poll shows Donald Trump trailing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by 14 points in a head-to-head primary matchup. Trump has an electoral college advantage of about three points over other GOP candidates. In 2016, Wisconsin was the tipping point state that got him to the White House. Donald Trump won the electoral college, but lost the popular vote by millions. He held onto his advantage in two elections where he wasn’t on the ballot. The House vote is the closest substitute for the presidential vote; it’s not perfect, but it’s close enough.