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Black and suburban Democrats are quickly nearing their next test.

On Feb. 21, Virginia’s 4th Congressional District will hold a special election to replace Democratic Rep. Donald A. McEachin. The district is almost lab-designed to be an interesting test of the party coalitions. Jennifer L. McClellan, the Democratic candidate, will almost certainly win. In 2020, 80 percent of all the district’s Democratic votes came from Richmond and Chesterfield and Henrico counties. In 2022, while Republicans won the House vote by three points, McEachin took this seat by nearly 30 percentage points. If turnout is sufficiently low or an unrepresentative mix of voters show up at the polls, results may be hard to interpret.